By Boluwatife Adedokun
For many smallholder farmers, one of the most important decisions of the farming season is made before a seed goes into the ground: when to plant.
WIn a country where farming remains heavily dependent on rainfall, getting that decision wrong can mean wasted seeds, fertiliser, labour and money.
As rainfall patterns become less predictable, weather forecasts delivered through digital platforms and mobile phones are increasingly giving farmers another way to plan their farms.
The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) now provides farmers with information covering rainfall onset and cessation, expected rainfall amounts, dry spells, temperature and the length of the growing season through its 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction.
The information is intended to support planning in agriculture and other weather-sensitive sectors, giving farmers access to information that can influence when they plant, apply inputs, irrigate and harvest.
When rain is no longer enough to guide planting
For generations, farmers have relied heavily on their experience of the seasons to determine when to plant. But changing weather patterns are making that approach increasingly difficult. Early rainfall does not necessarily mean the rainy season has properly begun, while a long dry spell after planting can leave newly planted crops vulnerable.
NiMet’s 2026 climate prediction projected variable rainfall, prolonged dry spells and warmer-than-average temperatures across much of Nigeria. The agency also warned that the August Break could be severe in parts of Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and Oyo, while advising farmers not to interpret isolated early rains as confirmation that the rainy season has begun.
The warning is significant because planting immediately after an isolated rainfall can expose farmers to losses if the rains stop. NiMet has previously warned that pre-onset rainfall can be insufficient to support crops and that farmers who plant too early may suffer crop failure. Its 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction specifically advised farmers to consult the agency’s forecast before deciding that the rainy season had officially started.
Turning forecasts into farming decisions
The value of a weather forecast is not simply knowing whether it will rain. For farmers, the more important question is what to do with that information.
A maize farmer, for example, needs to know whether expected rainfall is sufficient for germination and early growth. A vegetable farmer may need to consider whether heavy rainfall could damage crops or wash away fertiliser. A farmer using pesticides also needs to know whether rain is likely soon after spraying, while someone preparing to harvest needs information that can help reduce the risk of leaving mature crops exposed to prolonged rainfall.
This is why the move towards agricultural climate advisories is important. NiMet’s Seasonal Climate Prediction platform includes information on rainfall onset, cessation, rainfall amounts, growing-season length and dry spells, while its state and LGA rainfall prediction tool allows users to access location-specific information.
The challenge is ensuring that such information reaches farmers in a form they can understand and use. A technical forecast sitting on a government website may be useful to researchers and policymakers, but a farmer may need something much simpler: plant now, wait for more consistent rainfall, prepare for a dry spell or delay fertiliser application.
Technology is closing part of that gap
Mobile phones are increasingly becoming an important channel for agricultural information. Farmers do not necessarily need expensive equipment to benefit from digital climate services. Information can be delivered through mobile applications, SMS, voice services, WhatsApp and other platforms.
NiMet is also moving further in this direction. In April 2026, the agency announced a partnership with AIM for Scale to strengthen the delivery of AI-powered weather forecasts and digital climate advisories to farmers across Nigeria. The partnership is designed to translate climate information into practical guidance that can help farmers make decisions on planting, input use and managing weather-related risks.
The development is part of a broader effort to make climate information more useful at farm level. In February, NiMet and Tomorrow.io worked on a Digital Climate Advisory Service designed to provide more tailored advice around planting and harvesting. The initiative includes a crop decision framework intended to connect weather information with specific agricultural decisions.
For farmers, the significance of these developments is simple: the technology is gradually moving from telling people what the weather may do to helping them understand what they can do about it.
A phone could become another farm tool
For a farmer in a rural community, the mobile phone may be the most accessible piece of technology available. That makes it an important channel for delivering climate information.
The information does not always have to come through a sophisticated application. A simple text message warning of an approaching dry spell, a voice message explaining when to plant or a WhatsApp advisory in Yoruba could be more useful to a farmer than a complicated weather dashboard.
NiMet’s own feedback platform asks users how they would prefer to receive climate information, including through websites, SMS, email, forums, social media, telephone and other channels. This highlights an important issue in agricultural technology: producing information is only one part of the job. The information has to reach the intended user in a form that works for them.
This is particularly relevant to smallholder farmers who may have limited internet access, low digital literacy or little time to interpret technical climate information. Local-language advisories could help bridge part of that gap, especially in communities where farmers are more comfortable receiving information in Yoruba, Hausa, Igbo or other local languages.
The technology cannot replace farmers’ knowledge
Digital forecasting should not be presented as a replacement for farmers’ experience. Farmers understand their soil, local terrain, drainage patterns and microclimates in ways that a general forecast may not capture.
Instead, weather technology can complement that knowledge. A farmer who already understands how a particular field behaves during heavy rain can combine that experience with a forecast to decide whether to plant, wait or prepare drainage.
Forecasts themselves are also not guarantees. Seasonal predictions describe expected patterns and probabilities rather than providing certainty about what will happen on every farm. Farmers therefore need to combine seasonal information with shorter-term forecasts and conditions on the ground.
The most useful approach is to treat weather information as another decision-making tool rather than as an instruction that must always be followed.
The real test is whether farmers save money
The success of digital climate services should ultimately be measured by what happens on farms.
If better weather information helps a farmer avoid planting before a long dry spell, the technology may have prevented the loss of seed and labour. If a farmer delays fertiliser application until rainfall conditions are suitable, the information may help prevent wasted inputs. If an early warning allows farmers to harvest before severe rainfall, it can potentially reduce losses.
These are the outcomes that matter more than the number of farmers registered on an application or the sophistication of an artificial intelligence system.
The same principle applies to government. NiMet already provides a substantial amount of climate information, but stronger links between meteorologists, agricultural extension officers, state governments, cooperatives and farmers would make it easier to translate forecasts into farm-level decisions.
Farmers can start using available information
Farmers do not have to wait for a new technology before beginning to use climate information. They can start by following reliable forecasts from NiMet and comparing them with their own farm records.
Before planting, farmers can check the expected onset of rainfall and the likely length of the growing season. During the season, they can monitor short-term forecasts before applying fertiliser or pesticides and pay attention to warnings about prolonged dry spells or heavy rainfall.
Keeping simple records can also help. Farmers can record planting dates, rainfall patterns, periods of dry weather and crop performance. Over several seasons, those records can help them compare their own experience with official forecasts and make more informed decisions.
Cooperatives can also help farmers access and interpret the information. Rather than every farmer trying to understand technical climate reports individually, cooperatives and extension officers can receive the information, work with agricultural experts to interpret it and distribute practical recommendations to members.
From weather information to climate-smart farming
Nigeria already has much of the infrastructure needed to make weather information more useful to farmers. NiMet produces seasonal forecasts, agricultural advisories and location-specific rainfall information, while new partnerships are bringing artificial intelligence and digital tools into the delivery of climate services.
The remaining challenge is the connection between the forecast and the farmer. Information must arrive early enough, reach the right communities and explain what farmers can actually do with it. This requires investment not only in forecasting technology, but also in rural connectivity, agricultural extension and local-language communication.
As rainfall patterns become increasingly difficult to predict, farmers may have less room to rely solely on traditional assumptions about when the rains will arrive. Digital weather services cannot eliminate climate risks, but they can give farmers more information with which to manage them.
For the smallholder farmer, the most valuable forecast is therefore not necessarily the one containing the most technical information. It is the one that arrives early enough to prevent a costly mistake, is simple enough to understand and gives the farmer a practical option for protecting the farm, the harvest and the money already invested in it.
