By Boluwatife Adedokun
In Nigeria’s revised ₦54.9 trillion 2025 budget, nearly 30% is earmarked for capital projects — a massive opportunity to tackle climate change. Yet a thorough review of the proposed capital expenditure reveals that critical green priorities such as methane reduction, renewable energy development, and tree-planting efforts remain largely unfunded.
This disconnect between Nigeria’s climate promises and its public investment priorities raises serious questions about whether the country’s ambitious environmental commitments are being taken seriously—or simply performative.
Methane Reduction: Targets With No Teeth
Nigeria is a signatory to the Global Methane Pledge and has committed to cutting methane emissions by 60% by 2031, as outlined in its official Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy. The country also passed the landmark Climate Change Act in 2021 to provide legal backing for its environmental objectives.
Despite these commitments, the 2025 capital budget contains no dedicated line items for methane abatement infrastructure such as flare capture systems or leak detection programs—this, in a country that ranks among the top ten methane emitters from oil and gas globally, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Instead, major funding continues to flow into oil sector infrastructure, reinforcing Nigeria’s fossil fuel dependence without offering a clear path toward decarbonization.
Energy Transition: Stuck at the Starting Line
Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan (ETP) envisions net-zero emissions by 2060, with renewable energy expected to play a central role in reaching this target. The plan aims to deliver 30 GW of electricity from renewable sources by 2030 and to end energy poverty.
However, the 2025 budget makes no direct capital allocations for large-scale solar, wind, or off-grid renewable energy initiatives. Despite ongoing support from multilateral donors—such as the recent $200 million investment in rural mini-grids from WeLight and the African Development Bank—federal budget support remains non-existent.
In effect, Nigeria’s clean energy future appears outsourced to development partners, without strong domestic investment to catalyze or scale these efforts.
Tree Planting and Reforestation: A Forgotten Front
Nigeria is committed to restoring over 4 million hectares of degraded land under AFR100 and is part of the global Great Green Wall initiative. These efforts are especially urgent as Nigeria continues to suffer from desertification, biodiversity loss, and a worsening deforestation crisis—losing an estimated 12% of its tree cover since 2001.
Yet the 2025 capital budget makes no provision for tree planting, seedling nurseries, reforestation programs, or ecosystem restoration. The National Agency for the Great Green Wall (NAGGW), which is supposed to lead these activities, is underfunded and largely absent from major capital disbursements.
What remains are vague flood and erosion control projects, with no concrete ties to climate adaptation or land restoration.
The Policy–Budget Gap
This failure to fund key environmental initiatives is particularly striking given Nigeria’s robust legal and policy framework. The country has adopted Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), committed to the Paris Agreement, and even has an active Climate Change Council chaired by the President.
However, a report by the Climate Policy Initiative shows Nigeria attracted only $1.2 billion in climate mitigation finance in 2021–2022. Meanwhile, it continues to spend more than ₦4 trillion annually on petrol subsidies, further undercutting efforts to shift toward a green economy.
Experts warn that without a budget tagging system to track green expenditures across ministries, most of Nigeria’s climate targets will remain unfunded and unmonitored.
A Missed Economic and Climate Opportunity
The financial case for methane reduction is clear: the IEA estimates that 75% of methane emissions from oil and gas can be avoided with existing technologies—and much of that can be done at no net cost. Flare capture, for example, can power local electricity grids, saving millions annually in diesel spending.
Likewise, the World Bank estimates that investments in renewable energy could unlock over $10 billion in economic value for Nigeria, while creating thousands of jobs. The absence of these investments in the 2025 budget is a missed opportunity not only for environmental justice—but for economic growth.
Where Nigeria Goes from Here
As climate-related disasters like flooding, droughts, and heatwaves increase in frequency and intensity, the need for climate-smart investment becomes ever more urgent. In 2022, floods displaced over 1.4 million people and caused more than $6.7 billion in economic damage.
If Nigeria is to safeguard its future, the capital budget must reflect this urgency. That means dedicated funding for methane abatement, renewable energy infrastructure, tree-planting, and climate adaptation programs—not just on paper, but in naira.
Until then, Nigeria risks remaining stuck in the cycle of lofty ambition without follow-through—pushing its climate goals further out of reach with every budget cycle.
