Agriculture and Food Security Minister Abubakar Kyari said on Monday that prices of some essential food commodities have fallen by as much as 50 per cent.
Official statistics show that food was still 19.57 per cent more expensive in August than a year earlier. The figures point to prices rising more slowly, not to a broad fall.
What the minister said
Kyari spoke in Maiduguri, Borno State, at a stakeholder meeting organised by his ministry with the Borno State Government and German support, under the theme “Stronger Partnerships for a Food Secure Nigeria.”
He said President Bola Tinubu had placed food security at the centre of the national agenda. He cited price reductions of up to 50 per cent for some essential items, alongside wider delivery of farm inputs, rural infrastructure investment and support for smallholders. He said prices had dropped significantly compared with 2023.
The ministry also said early purchase of fertiliser under a presidential scheme saved ₦61.58 billion this season, according to The Rio Times’ report on the event. That report adds that the ministry’s statement named no commodities and no base period. It also notes that Daily Trust reported the comparison as being with pre-2023 levels.
The claim is not new. The Federal Ministry of Information carried a similar 50 per cent claim attributed to Kyari in March.
What the official figures show
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) publishes the consumer price index. Its August report put food inflation at 19.57 per cent, down from 20.31 per cent in July. Headline inflation was 15.39 per cent and core inflation 13.29 per cent, according to Premium Times. Food prices also rose 1.02 per cent in August alone, compared with July.
Inflation measures the speed of price increases, not their direction. Easing from 20.31 to 19.57 per cent means prices are still climbing, only more slowly. A basket of food that cost ₦100,000 a year ago now costs about ₦119,570. For prices to fall by half across the board, the index would have to show sharp deflation, and no NBS figure shows that.
Where the minister has a point
The picture is not uniformly bleak. The slowdown in food inflation is real, and some individual items have dropped sharply from their peaks.
Dubawa, a fact-checking organisation, examined NBS price surveys when the minister made his March claim. It found that beans were 48.65 per cent cheaper in January 2026 than a year earlier. That is close to the scale of reduction the minister described, at least for that item.
His claim therefore has some factual footing for selected commodities, particularly beans. The question is whether it can be generalised to “essential food commodities” as a group.
Where the data complicate the claim
The same survey data show why a headline figure can mislead. Dubawa found rice at ₦1,841.83 per kilogramme in January 2026, against ₦1,021 in January 2024, roughly 80 per cent higher than two years earlier. Beans, despite their steep annual fall, still cost about 29 per cent more than in January 2024.
Dubawa concluded that prices had eased but that the government oversaw the initial surge. Prices rose sharply after the removal of the petrol subsidy and the floating of the naira in 2023, so a fall from a peak does not mean a return to earlier levels. Relief for a household depends on the base year used, and the minister’s own statement gave no base year.
The rebasing caveat
Long-run comparisons carry a technical complication. In February 2025, the NBS rebased its index from 2009 to 2024 and updated the basket of goods. The ICIR reported that headline inflation dropped from 34.80 per cent in December 2024 to 24.48 per cent in January 2025, largely because of the new methodology. Rates before and after the change cannot be compared directly. Anyone judging how far prices have come down since 2023 has to account for that break in the series.
Why the numbers matter beyond the market
For households, the distinction is practical. A slowing rate of increase gives little comfort to a family that spends most of its income on food and still pays more each month than it did a year ago.
For policymakers, the gap matters for credibility. The cost of living is central to the political debate ahead of the 2027 elections, and claims that cannot be tied to published data invite scrutiny. Kyari himself has urged critics to stop politicising food prices. Independent verification, in this case by the NBS and fact-checkers, is part of how such claims are tested.
The agritech angle
The ministry attributes part of the improvement to input delivery and support for smallholders, which is where agricultural technology firms operate. Digital platforms that connect farmers to fertiliser, seed, credit and buyers can lower costs and cut post-harvest losses. The fertiliser savings the ministry cited point in that direction.
No published figure in the reports reviewed here, however, separates the contribution of such platforms from other factors such as exchange-rate movements, harvest cycles and transport costs. Claims that technology is driving down food prices should be treated as plausible but unproven until that data exists.
What to watch
Several things remain unanswered. The ministry has not said which commodities fell by up to 50 per cent, over what period, or by what measure. The NBS is expected to release September inflation data in mid-October.
A further dip in food inflation would be welcome news, but it would still describe prices rising more slowly. Only a sustained fall in the food index, or item-level price data matching the minister’s description, would support the claim as stated.
