By Fidipote Sangodare

Recent developments within the nation’s political space raise questions about the activities of a fifth column within President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s camp. The situation in Osun is a typical case of insiders working hard to undermine the President’s base, much like what is happening in Lagos.

The volatile political situation in Northern Nigeria is an open book. The North is revolting, and it is doing so quite vehemently. An influential group is mobilizing across party lines to punish the incumbent for what they perceive as his misdeeds.

Northern rivals are forgiving each other and uniting in their anti-Tinubu plot. Political realists within the President’s camp recognize the seriousness of this scheme and are strategizing countermeasures. These core realists remember the tide that swept former President Goodluck Jonathan out of office—a web of deep intrigue whose signs are gradually emerging, with the North as the launching pad.

Several options are available to the President’s men. The most obvious is reconciliation with aggrieved political forces. However, this path appears to be a lost cause, as the infighting seems to have escalated beyond repair. Reports even suggest that fifth columnists are embedded within the President’s inner circle.

Another option is geopolitical realignment. This could involve fragmenting the North, ensuring the ostracization of the North West from the North East and the North Central. By capitalizing on the Vice Presidency’s Kanuri axis and reaching out to the South South and South East, political magic could be achieved. However, this path demands complex consensus-building and a deep respect for regional interests.

The President may also adopt a strong-arm tactic by raising, empowering, and strengthening his loyalists across the geopolitical zones. This could involve manipulating national institutions to counter growing political opposition ahead of 2027. If he chooses this route, Mr. President certainly has the capacity, given his Machiavellian experience.

However, for any of these options to succeed, the President must first secure his home base. The six South Western states must, in one way or another, be politically united behind Tinubu’s second-term ambition. How the President will achieve this remains a subject of deep contemplation.

Two South Western states are particularly crucial—Oyo and Osun. Oyo is the political capital of the Yoruba people, while Osun is the ancestral home of all Yoruba, including Mr. President. Both states are currently controlled by the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The governors of these states not only wield significant financial resources but also command grassroots support. Ademola Adeleke and Seyi Makinde are street-savvy political figures in their respective states.

What should the President’s strategy be? Should he attempt to seize control of these states through brute force, or should he employ a more subtle, diplomatic approach?

In Osun, the President faces a precarious situation. His key political allies in the state are unpopular due to their past records in governance. Any deployment of federal might to reclaim the state would likely deepen public resentment toward the President. A smarter move would be to broker a deal with the Adeleke political family regarding the 2027 elections in exchange for a similar understanding in the 2026 Osun governorship election.

This approach is reportedly favored by many of Mr. President’s key aides and associates, who see it as the most logical path forward. However, a particular family member of the President appears to ignore this reality, failing to recognize that the presidential mandate is far more critical than a gubernatorial contest. Blinded by personal ambition, he is playing a dangerous game with the President’s re-election prospects.

This brings us to the essence of this write-up: Who are the real enemies of the President in Osun? Anyone advocating for a forceful takeover of Osun State is, in reality, a hidden adversary of Mr. President.

What Tinubu’s true allies should focus on is consolidating the South West as his stronghold. Establishing a solid political base from which the President can operate is the most strategic move. At a time when the core North is mobilizing to dethrone him, it is astonishing that a member of his own family is setting his home base on fire. Is this how one supports their own kin?

Before it is too late, genuine supporters of the President must rethink the current approach. The storm is gathering. This is real. Securing the home base should be an urgent priority.

Fidipote Sangodare

Public affairs analyst, writing from Garki, Area 10, Abuja.
He can be reached at erimedia2013@gmail.com